Female 35-39:
Another Hot age group:
947: Jodie Barker - Did race NZ and am thinking she will either not start or just "go around".
963: Zoe Ferguson - A Sean Foster trained athlete, will be there abouts at the finish, not an IM specialist but I doubt she would be racing just to fill the numbers!
1001: Julianna Schliebs: Always at the pointy end of the field, will be again.
1007: Elizabeth Stretton: has gone well under 10hrs and will be hard to catch here.
1010: Catherine Theile: Trained by hubby Bruce and always gets the job done, will be a toss up between her and Stretton for me.
1014: Tarryn Whitmore: Will be competitive, just unsure if the run will be the achilles heel.
There are a few unknowns here for me also, however Theile & Stretton are my picks for the top 2.
Male 40-44:
The numbers just keep growing. This age group will have a lot of spots and there will be some lucky athletes here!!
1076: Erin Carozzi
1225: Olaf Kasten - 9.10 in 2012
1246: Scott Lawton - 9.17 in 2012
1294: Bevan Nicholson - 9.08 in 2012
1341: Aaron Richardson - 9.10 in 2012
1370: Jaysen Searle - 9.30 IMAUST 2012
1421: Brett Urwin - I think he is due for a good one, blew up massively at Cairns, but has good training partners in Mitch Anderson and co, and I have seen him out and about solo this time.
1415: Travis Tremayne: Took a cheap entry to Kona with a roll down at Auckland, time that he delivered on the Ironman stage like he always he is going to.
Once again, there will be many who I have missed, but with 450+ athletes here the above are still going to give it a good nudge!
Female 40 - 44:
I think that there are a few standouts here:
Georgie Camakaris: 3rd last year and without the first 2, should be a good show!
Carolyn Dews: 2nd IMAUST 2012 with a 10.35, prob the one to beat!
Male 45-49:
1528: Spot Anderson - will lead the swim in this age group if not overall.
1560: Graham Bruce - 10.15 IMWA 2012
1608: Darren Franken - has just aged up, will be very tough to beat here...a 9.30 athlete on his day
1630: Rob Hill - like many mentioned before, always gets the job done, been to Kona 6+ times, speaks for itself.
1651: Toshihisa Kanayama - 4th 2012 Melb, will be around the mark again
1666: Simon Leversha -
1689: Brian Millet - 1st 2012 IMWA
Female 45 - 49:
1824: Christine Lefeaux - 10.55 IMAUST 2012
1829: Sharyn Nicols - 3rd Cairns 2012
Male 50 - 54:
1891: Kevin Fergusson by forever!
1985: Toby Somerville to finish 2nd
Female 50 - 54:
2020: Sarah Collins 2012 Cairns Age Group winner
2036: Mary Mitchell 2nd 2012 IMWA
Male 55 - 59:
2070: John Hill will be on his 5th beer before the others get to the finish.
2077: Phillip Murray - returning age group winner from 2012.
2080: Robert Owens - 3rd here last year
2056: Andrew Davidson - 2nd Cairns 2012
2069: Stephen Hempel - 3rd Cairns 2012
Female 55 - 59:
Only one here for me:
2106: Nancy Cullen, will be a long long way in front!
Male 60 - 64:
2140: Tomas Valena - don't know of anyone else!
Female 64 - 64:
Picking at random:
2143: Helen Freer
Male 65 - 69:
The fact that there are 10 here is great!!
Random selection goes to:
2149: Niel Gilbert
Female 65 - 69:
2155: Karla McKinlay Always keeps going!
Male 70 - 74:
2157: Geoffrey Thorsten
Let's see how many are right, wrong or way off:
Good luck to all racing and am happy to be proven wrong. But remember finishing 15th and getting a Kona spot doesn't deserve a mention here!!
For Now...
X-Man
Sunday, March 17, 2013
Ironman Melbourne 2013 Age Group Tips - Part 1
Firstly, I would to thank everyone in their keen interest in the tips that I do and for the suggestions.
What you have to remember is the "John Smith" that you send through as a "chance who is flying" is most likely true compared to their previous training, but doesn't mean that they will cut the mustard against the competition in their age group.
No doubt I miss some, add some crazy choices, but at the end of the day it started out as fun and just grew form there. Some age groups I really have no idea about, but still enjoy throwing a name out there to see how I go. Hence why I am a terrible punter!!
Anyway, with the field size the way it is (over 2000) and the number of first timers (750 odd), I have no doubt that there will be some "roughies" that sneak under my radar. I am no Bruce McInvaney and have no idea about 80% of the field. I only go by the little amount research that I do.
So, if I have your name on the list, it is because I think that you are a chance in your age group (doesn't mean you have to believe it and change your race) & if I don't have your name it doesn't mean that you are not a good athlete, just that I think (it is only MY opinion) that there are better athletes in your age group. ( I don't need all the hate mail, I don't change the race, play god or anything like that, I just throw up MY likely winners!) Geez there are some precious people out there!!
Enough of the pre selection crap, just wanted to clear the air before I offended some people!!
Male 18-24:
With Matty Burton turning pro and aging up, there has been a big void left in this age group and I have 3 contenders who should battle it out:
111. Robert Hyland - 3rd here last year in 9.52
114. Patrick Nestel - 4th here last year in 10.19
115. Aaron Newman - 10.23 IMWA 2012
Female 18-24:
Pick a number, any number.. I have no idea with this, however there are only 3 in the age group so I will go eenie meenie miney mo and end up with:
126. Kate O'Neill
Male 25-29:
With last year's fastest age grouper TMC's Greg Farrell (8hr 48min) also turning pro, this field has a lot to live up to.
My outright favorite here is:
206: Anthony Rule, been to Kona a few times, yet to hit the mark there. Usually races in NZ and destroys fields, so will see how he goes in Melbourne. Has moved to QLD to aid his training, and no doubt wants to have a crack at the a/g record. Can he do it?
The only other one I could see was:
176. Clint Kimmins, I am unsure how he will go here, been racing a lot, and already got his ticket to Kona from IMWA where he won his age group. Cairns 2012, Busso 2012 and now Melb 2013, just how much has it taken out of his legs...If he races?!?
Female 25-29:
This is where the competition really heats up:
236. Lauren Jones, last years winner is back to defend her title, 10.05 2012 Melbourne
I believe her main competition is going to come from:
230. Jacinta Collier, it's in the blood lines
232. Tracy Douglas 4th 2012 Melbourne
233. Katy Duffield from what I could find, did her last IM in 2010, Busso in 10.27, should push here.
And a roughy:
250. Rebecca Schlieckman ( no real reason!!)
Male 30-34:
This is where my interest as a coach shines in also!!
However I know 1 man that is very happy that I have aged up and Rob Creasy raced IMNZ and he is also my favourite to take the 'W' here:
262. Hayden Armstrong, 3rd last year in 8.58, know how to get the job done and with no real weakness will be on the podium again (barring mechanical). He just does the right things race in race out and if you are to beat him, you'd better be on your game!
The biggest chances I can find to beat him is:
347: Stephen Hadley, is more of a 70.3 specialist with the swim being his weakness. The only doubt I have here is that inexperience and a touch of ego on the bike might let him down. If he controls the bike he should be up there. Often posts about how much he smashes training and then if things don't go well, says he doesn't do much!! Handed it to me at Geelong 70.3 recently after getting off the bike together. Last IM was Hawaii 2010, will this help or hinder. Will either podium or be out there for a long time.
437: Jarrod Owen a 70.3 specialist who can run the house down!
467: Pablo Safrana: As per Hayden, just knows how to get the job done. Am unsure if he is racing here due to being overseas for some time, but am confident if he toes the start line, he will be up there. You don't go 9.25ish at Hawaii if you are a mug. Went 9.08 last year.
487: Aaron Steel: The big guy won't be on anyone's radar but I am telling you that he can move. Will be interesting how he goes here but has been in good form over the 70.3 distances!
485: Lucas Spargo: Same deal as Aaron, should be around the mark.
294: Sam Chapman: Only if related to Trent & Leigh, otherwise nothing!
413: Angus McGilvray: 9.15hr 2012, spends a lot of time looking in the mirror at the gym. But will be around the mark 5-10th my pick.
455: Marcus Randall: 5th Cairns 2012 when Brett Carter (Now TBB) tore the field apart, should be competitive for 4-8th I think.
& Lucky Last:
Whenever there is a Team PIS athlete racing, you always have to be weary, this race it is:
470: Michael Schembri, all the boys are talking him up, wonder if he is the goods or will crack under the pressure! You will see the flying Red & White stripes at every race!!
I have a smokey in this field, it is his 1st IM and can swim/ride well, the unknown is his run at this distance, will go either way. I am backing him for a 3.30 run to have a 9.20-9.30 day!! Should be around the mark for a Kona Spot, only because there is so many!
Female 30 - 34:
There are some seriously fast girls here:
575: Rhiannon Snipe
536: Bernadette Dornom
537: Elizabeth Dornom
542: Dimity Gannon
You can throw a blanket over the above 4!! All podium in Ironmans and will do again here, others to watch are :
522: Melanie Ades, won't be far off the pace.
530: Jennifer Collier, it's in the blood.
Roughy:
569: Lucy Piper.
Ok, the age group that matters the most (TO ME!!)
Male 35-39:
This will be the best line up outside Hawaii that I will ever race in, I am excited to be a part of this race and line up again against, Sam Hume, Damien Angus, Ollie Allan etc. I think on an equivalent day to last year, there could be upto 7 break the 9hr mark, will be a closely contested race and sticking to your own plan will be the key.
595: Ollie Allan: 2nd & sub 9 in 2012, has battled with injuries since, unsure if he can repeat it.
596: Damien Angus: Is on fire atm and should lead off the bike again.
609: Mark Bellow: rode a 4:3x at Busso a few years ago, might be able to ride with Angus if he can get close enough out of the water.
704: David Green: 2012 Kona Finisher, ride/runner, unsure how much he will give up in the swim and if he can bridge the gap to the super runners.
705: Travis Greening
737: Sam Hume: Back in form with a great Hawaii 2012 (2nd 35-39) and then Geelong 70.3, is the man to beat for sure!
791: Kristian Manietta: Has gone sub 9 at Busso before and I know he is itching to have a good crack here, will have to rely on his run to be a chance.
792: Glenn Martinovich: The WA boy will be around the mark, but will be looking at 6-10th I feel.
820: Stephen Natoli: 9.14 2012, does go well, a bit off the leaders though.
833: Matt "THE PUMPER" Palmer: has had the pump out all week inflating his tyres, is he in good form or trying to get inside the heads of the others. Talk the talk, now time to Walk the Walk!
848: Matt Rae: Can get the job done, 4th Cairns 2012.
915: Stephane Vander Bruggen: Will have to rely on getting out of the water in good shape, nailing a fast 130 and then a solid last 50. Will need to have a good lead to be any chance of a podium.
936: Brenton Yates: 9.13 2012, will be around the mark again.
940: Ross Young: Runs like a pro, but how much time will he give up. Will go sub 9, but how far under. On his best day will be in the top 2, but with only 1 IM under his belt (Hawaii 2012) the others might try and work him over a bit on the bike.
Throw in many form last year who were around the 9.20 - 9.30, every second will count here in the battle to get to Hawaii. TMC has 4 good chances here if the day goes well (incl myself).
Ok, with me... This is where I stand. I have only been swimming 3 times a fortnight in the open water and am looking at just breaking the 1hr mark . I know that I will be giving up more time here as last year I swam 57. My biking is where it is at, knowing that there will be a super strong bike field out there, I have made this my focus for this race and not long ago I did 1000k in 10 days incl 4 x 150k+ rides in 8 days, topping out at 215k. It is where I will need to make my move, hit them hard and keep to my race plan.
4:35hr is my ride goal.
All going well, should have a 5-8 minute lead off the bike to the contenders, not to the chumps as no doubt someone will ride with me and won't be able to run, I am talking about the above, the serious guys!!
The run will determine my race again, after running a 3:11 last year and being run down, I know that it will happen again, I just want to limit the amount of people who do it. I have my run plan, but will keep that close to my chest, but at worst will run a 3:15, not good enough for the 'W' but should keep them honest!!
For Now...
X-Man
Part 2 will be up later today!
What you have to remember is the "John Smith" that you send through as a "chance who is flying" is most likely true compared to their previous training, but doesn't mean that they will cut the mustard against the competition in their age group.
No doubt I miss some, add some crazy choices, but at the end of the day it started out as fun and just grew form there. Some age groups I really have no idea about, but still enjoy throwing a name out there to see how I go. Hence why I am a terrible punter!!
Anyway, with the field size the way it is (over 2000) and the number of first timers (750 odd), I have no doubt that there will be some "roughies" that sneak under my radar. I am no Bruce McInvaney and have no idea about 80% of the field. I only go by the little amount research that I do.
So, if I have your name on the list, it is because I think that you are a chance in your age group (doesn't mean you have to believe it and change your race) & if I don't have your name it doesn't mean that you are not a good athlete, just that I think (it is only MY opinion) that there are better athletes in your age group. ( I don't need all the hate mail, I don't change the race, play god or anything like that, I just throw up MY likely winners!) Geez there are some precious people out there!!
Enough of the pre selection crap, just wanted to clear the air before I offended some people!!
Male 18-24:
With Matty Burton turning pro and aging up, there has been a big void left in this age group and I have 3 contenders who should battle it out:
111. Robert Hyland - 3rd here last year in 9.52
114. Patrick Nestel - 4th here last year in 10.19
115. Aaron Newman - 10.23 IMWA 2012
Female 18-24:
Pick a number, any number.. I have no idea with this, however there are only 3 in the age group so I will go eenie meenie miney mo and end up with:
126. Kate O'Neill
Male 25-29:
With last year's fastest age grouper TMC's Greg Farrell (8hr 48min) also turning pro, this field has a lot to live up to.
My outright favorite here is:
206: Anthony Rule, been to Kona a few times, yet to hit the mark there. Usually races in NZ and destroys fields, so will see how he goes in Melbourne. Has moved to QLD to aid his training, and no doubt wants to have a crack at the a/g record. Can he do it?
The only other one I could see was:
176. Clint Kimmins, I am unsure how he will go here, been racing a lot, and already got his ticket to Kona from IMWA where he won his age group. Cairns 2012, Busso 2012 and now Melb 2013, just how much has it taken out of his legs...If he races?!?
Female 25-29:
This is where the competition really heats up:
236. Lauren Jones, last years winner is back to defend her title, 10.05 2012 Melbourne
I believe her main competition is going to come from:
230. Jacinta Collier, it's in the blood lines
232. Tracy Douglas 4th 2012 Melbourne
233. Katy Duffield from what I could find, did her last IM in 2010, Busso in 10.27, should push here.
And a roughy:
250. Rebecca Schlieckman ( no real reason!!)
Male 30-34:
This is where my interest as a coach shines in also!!
However I know 1 man that is very happy that I have aged up and Rob Creasy raced IMNZ and he is also my favourite to take the 'W' here:
262. Hayden Armstrong, 3rd last year in 8.58, know how to get the job done and with no real weakness will be on the podium again (barring mechanical). He just does the right things race in race out and if you are to beat him, you'd better be on your game!
The biggest chances I can find to beat him is:
347: Stephen Hadley, is more of a 70.3 specialist with the swim being his weakness. The only doubt I have here is that inexperience and a touch of ego on the bike might let him down. If he controls the bike he should be up there. Often posts about how much he smashes training and then if things don't go well, says he doesn't do much!! Handed it to me at Geelong 70.3 recently after getting off the bike together. Last IM was Hawaii 2010, will this help or hinder. Will either podium or be out there for a long time.
437: Jarrod Owen a 70.3 specialist who can run the house down!
467: Pablo Safrana: As per Hayden, just knows how to get the job done. Am unsure if he is racing here due to being overseas for some time, but am confident if he toes the start line, he will be up there. You don't go 9.25ish at Hawaii if you are a mug. Went 9.08 last year.
487: Aaron Steel: The big guy won't be on anyone's radar but I am telling you that he can move. Will be interesting how he goes here but has been in good form over the 70.3 distances!
485: Lucas Spargo: Same deal as Aaron, should be around the mark.
294: Sam Chapman: Only if related to Trent & Leigh, otherwise nothing!
413: Angus McGilvray: 9.15hr 2012, spends a lot of time looking in the mirror at the gym. But will be around the mark 5-10th my pick.
455: Marcus Randall: 5th Cairns 2012 when Brett Carter (Now TBB) tore the field apart, should be competitive for 4-8th I think.
& Lucky Last:
Whenever there is a Team PIS athlete racing, you always have to be weary, this race it is:
470: Michael Schembri, all the boys are talking him up, wonder if he is the goods or will crack under the pressure! You will see the flying Red & White stripes at every race!!
I have a smokey in this field, it is his 1st IM and can swim/ride well, the unknown is his run at this distance, will go either way. I am backing him for a 3.30 run to have a 9.20-9.30 day!! Should be around the mark for a Kona Spot, only because there is so many!
Female 30 - 34:
There are some seriously fast girls here:
575: Rhiannon Snipe
536: Bernadette Dornom
537: Elizabeth Dornom
542: Dimity Gannon
You can throw a blanket over the above 4!! All podium in Ironmans and will do again here, others to watch are :
522: Melanie Ades, won't be far off the pace.
530: Jennifer Collier, it's in the blood.
Roughy:
569: Lucy Piper.
Ok, the age group that matters the most (TO ME!!)
Male 35-39:
This will be the best line up outside Hawaii that I will ever race in, I am excited to be a part of this race and line up again against, Sam Hume, Damien Angus, Ollie Allan etc. I think on an equivalent day to last year, there could be upto 7 break the 9hr mark, will be a closely contested race and sticking to your own plan will be the key.
595: Ollie Allan: 2nd & sub 9 in 2012, has battled with injuries since, unsure if he can repeat it.
596: Damien Angus: Is on fire atm and should lead off the bike again.
609: Mark Bellow: rode a 4:3x at Busso a few years ago, might be able to ride with Angus if he can get close enough out of the water.
704: David Green: 2012 Kona Finisher, ride/runner, unsure how much he will give up in the swim and if he can bridge the gap to the super runners.
705: Travis Greening
737: Sam Hume: Back in form with a great Hawaii 2012 (2nd 35-39) and then Geelong 70.3, is the man to beat for sure!
791: Kristian Manietta: Has gone sub 9 at Busso before and I know he is itching to have a good crack here, will have to rely on his run to be a chance.
792: Glenn Martinovich: The WA boy will be around the mark, but will be looking at 6-10th I feel.
820: Stephen Natoli: 9.14 2012, does go well, a bit off the leaders though.
833: Matt "THE PUMPER" Palmer: has had the pump out all week inflating his tyres, is he in good form or trying to get inside the heads of the others. Talk the talk, now time to Walk the Walk!
848: Matt Rae: Can get the job done, 4th Cairns 2012.
915: Stephane Vander Bruggen: Will have to rely on getting out of the water in good shape, nailing a fast 130 and then a solid last 50. Will need to have a good lead to be any chance of a podium.
936: Brenton Yates: 9.13 2012, will be around the mark again.
940: Ross Young: Runs like a pro, but how much time will he give up. Will go sub 9, but how far under. On his best day will be in the top 2, but with only 1 IM under his belt (Hawaii 2012) the others might try and work him over a bit on the bike.
Throw in many form last year who were around the 9.20 - 9.30, every second will count here in the battle to get to Hawaii. TMC has 4 good chances here if the day goes well (incl myself).
Ok, with me... This is where I stand. I have only been swimming 3 times a fortnight in the open water and am looking at just breaking the 1hr mark . I know that I will be giving up more time here as last year I swam 57. My biking is where it is at, knowing that there will be a super strong bike field out there, I have made this my focus for this race and not long ago I did 1000k in 10 days incl 4 x 150k+ rides in 8 days, topping out at 215k. It is where I will need to make my move, hit them hard and keep to my race plan.
4:35hr is my ride goal.
All going well, should have a 5-8 minute lead off the bike to the contenders, not to the chumps as no doubt someone will ride with me and won't be able to run, I am talking about the above, the serious guys!!
The run will determine my race again, after running a 3:11 last year and being run down, I know that it will happen again, I just want to limit the amount of people who do it. I have my run plan, but will keep that close to my chest, but at worst will run a 3:15, not good enough for the 'W' but should keep them honest!!
For Now...
X-Man
Part 2 will be up later today!
Sunday, March 3, 2013
March Madness!!
It has been a while since posting, but I thought that I would get the wheels rolling again..
So as we hit the last 3 weeks before Ironman Melbourne. For all my 1st timers and a few of the experienced guys, the time is near where we shut up shop.
This is the part where I turn from coach to counsillor. When everyone who has missed a session, asked about where they can make it up. My advice is always the same, you never make it up, you let it go, that is the way the program is structured.
For the ones who have done all they can, time to tick the final few boxes before we shut up shop. Time to just get through the week and weekend the best you can, ignore the negative thoughts and get the job done.
Once this weekend is done, feet up, recovery, taper and freshen up for the big day ahead.
My roll call is: (in no particular order)
Lee Martin (2nd Ironman)
Tom Lazarus (2nd Ironman)
Mark Steers (1st Ironman)
Dale Smedley (1st Ironman)
Clayton Stairmaid (1st Ironman)
Reed Hughes (1st Ironman in 12 years)
Ben Robinson (5th Ironman)
Archie Ball (6th Ironman)
Adam McCarthy (1st Ironman)
Kane Roach (1st Ironman)
Jerome Peyton (2nd Ironman)
Dan Palmer (1st Ironman)
Damien Harris (1st Ironman)
Ben Hughes (2nd Ironman)
And I have also been assisting Daniel Hopper along the way.
My training has been really inconsistent with some big sessions and some weeks of very little. My focus has been on the above crew in aiding them getting to the start line in the best shape possible. The next 12 days will define my race after not running for the last 8 days due to travel, testing etc it is important for me to get some decent k's in the next week and a bit. I am still training with my guys and will be trying to add some sessions for myself. Time will tell.
Over the weekend I also had some athletes race at both Ironman New Zealand and Sufferfest in Warrnambool.
In New Zealand, Jason Dwyer broke 12 hrs going 11hr 50min which improved his Melbourne time the previous year by 40min!
John Cahill had a solid race just sneaking under the 11mark in 10hr 58min. He had a 56min swim, 5hr 30min ride and the same run time as I did there.... 4hr 30min...ah the curse.
Ryan Rosello (NZ athlete) had a very solid race in 10hr 30min finishing 23rd in his a/g, after just 2 months coaching, this was a great result.
For Now...
X-Man
PS. I will give an update of what I have been up to of late and what the lead in entails.
So as we hit the last 3 weeks before Ironman Melbourne. For all my 1st timers and a few of the experienced guys, the time is near where we shut up shop.
This is the part where I turn from coach to counsillor. When everyone who has missed a session, asked about where they can make it up. My advice is always the same, you never make it up, you let it go, that is the way the program is structured.
For the ones who have done all they can, time to tick the final few boxes before we shut up shop. Time to just get through the week and weekend the best you can, ignore the negative thoughts and get the job done.
Once this weekend is done, feet up, recovery, taper and freshen up for the big day ahead.
My roll call is: (in no particular order)
Lee Martin (2nd Ironman)
Tom Lazarus (2nd Ironman)
Mark Steers (1st Ironman)
Dale Smedley (1st Ironman)
Clayton Stairmaid (1st Ironman)
Reed Hughes (1st Ironman in 12 years)
Ben Robinson (5th Ironman)
Archie Ball (6th Ironman)
Adam McCarthy (1st Ironman)
Kane Roach (1st Ironman)
Jerome Peyton (2nd Ironman)
Dan Palmer (1st Ironman)
Damien Harris (1st Ironman)
Ben Hughes (2nd Ironman)
And I have also been assisting Daniel Hopper along the way.
My training has been really inconsistent with some big sessions and some weeks of very little. My focus has been on the above crew in aiding them getting to the start line in the best shape possible. The next 12 days will define my race after not running for the last 8 days due to travel, testing etc it is important for me to get some decent k's in the next week and a bit. I am still training with my guys and will be trying to add some sessions for myself. Time will tell.
Over the weekend I also had some athletes race at both Ironman New Zealand and Sufferfest in Warrnambool.
In New Zealand, Jason Dwyer broke 12 hrs going 11hr 50min which improved his Melbourne time the previous year by 40min!
John Cahill had a solid race just sneaking under the 11mark in 10hr 58min. He had a 56min swim, 5hr 30min ride and the same run time as I did there.... 4hr 30min...ah the curse.
Ryan Rosello (NZ athlete) had a very solid race in 10hr 30min finishing 23rd in his a/g, after just 2 months coaching, this was a great result.
For Now...
X-Man
PS. I will give an update of what I have been up to of late and what the lead in entails.
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