I know that I will miss 1 or 2 that I am unsure about however I think that I am aware of the main guys that I need to watch out for.
Hayden Armstrong - This guy is solid, have race him a few times and just have the wood on him, however I know that he has come to Melbourne to repeat his 14th Outright at IMNZ 2011. A 9hr 28min Kona means this guy demands respect, we had a good chat climbing Hawi last year and also after Yeppoon 70.3, great guy to boot.
Pablo Safrana - Pabs is a guy who I admire, just seems to race all the time and continually gets the results. We rode together back in 2009 & 2010 @ IMWA. He finished Hawaii 2011 in 9hr 23min. Would still have included him even if IMNZ was a full.... Finished 7th in the 30-34 in the revamped race. He has been to Kona plenty of times and no doubt wants to go back.
Rob Creasy - 9hr 17min @ IM Hawaii 2011 speaks for itself. Very consistent across all 3 disciplines & will at the pointy end of the field when it counts.
Tom Bakowski - 1 word = GUN, 8hr 59min @ IMWA 2011 with a 3hr 9min marathon. I have raced him a few times. Has 3 great disciplines and is my pick to stand on top at the end of the day in under 9hrs once again.
Tim Carpenter - Prob suited better to 70.3, however is a quality athlete. Goes around the 9hr 30min mark. Might just give the leaders to much start going into T2.
Gene Bates (Pro cyclist) - A pro cyclist. Unsure about this guy, but anyone who can ride pro, is worth the mention. No doubt with a solid swim, should be in contention heading into the marathon. But can he run??
Dane Heaysman - Have to mention this guy, made it to Kona and had a tough day, but the hardest part is making it. If I didn't know he was a new dad I would be sure that he would be knocking on the door once again. BTW Congrates mate.
Brad Manczak -5th @ IMWA 2011 in a time of 9hr 32min, his swim def lets him down, might just give too much start to the front runners.
James Monahan - A solid performer who doesn't have a real strength, however I know that he has been training the house down. Has to be 100% on race day to have a chance. Unsure if he has the ability to really trouble a few boys mentioned above.
Tristan Parker - My pick to have the fastest 30-34 a/g bike split. However in this sport, you still have to run a marathon. TP will need a good 10min lead to try to hang onto going into T2 to be any chance. (The Chris Lieto of 30-34) Since moving to MTC, am sure he has learnt a fair bit.
Hugh Peck - Finished just behind Bakowski (2nd & 3rd) at Port Macquarie 70.3 2011 in 4hr 22min and just in front of Hayden Armstrong. A couple of sub 10hr Ironmans, but has been a fair bit behind Pabs when it goes long. Could be a long shot.
Andrew Reynolds - Another Hawaii 2011 Finisher in 10hr 29min and was a 9hr 46min IMWA 2010, and a 9hr 48min IM Port 2011. Times seem a little off however, he knows how to get to the Big Island.
And then there is me, I would like to think that I am a chance, however as you read above, I have mentioned 12 genuine athletes who are going to challenge for a spot. I may have knocked off these guys in my previous races, however in Ironman, that counts for nothing. I know which athletes I will have to monitor when I get onto the bike and which athletes I can let go. I am not in my 9hr 9min Kona shape, however I know that I am not far off.
The only thing that I know is come Sunday, I will have nothing left when I cross that line and whatever the result, I will be proud as I would have given everything that I have. Don't get me wrong, I am going for a Kona spot, but so are the 12 listed above along with so many others. IT is going to be a really tough race and the finer details over the next few days regarding equipment and tactics will decide my race plan.
If I can be off the bike in the top couple, I know what it takes to churn out a solid race. Can I go sub 9hr? That is a BIG BIG question, a few of the above boys have an that's who I am chasing. Give me some wind on the bike and it will be game on.
This one is for you Mum (25/12/53 - 25/03/07)
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